Current performance vs. predicted contextualized performance

In Olocip we have analyzed the prediction of Alvaro Morata’s performance in Atlético de Madrid, where he was when he was a child along with other references as David de Gea and Koke. The Madrid native has scored seven goals in 24 games in this first round for Chelsea, and now both sides have opted for a loan in the current tranfer market  period for the player to play more minutes.

The striker has never surpassed the 20-goal mark, but his performances have improved the collective performance of the teams he has been to. Morata arrives to reinforce efficiency in an attack where Griezmann has 16 goals, while Diego Costa has four. Although the team led by Simeone records 30 goals in 21 rounds, the same numbers as in the 2017-2018 season, it needs to increase the goals if it wants to be in the final of the Champions League to be played in the Wanda Metropolitano

In the Atlético it will increase the numbers of Costa and Kalinic

Our TCT-Scout tool offers the performance prediction that Morata will bring to Atlético de Madrid, taking into account its main characteristics and replacing Diego Costa and Kalinic. The new red and white incorporation will improve the offensive numbers of the team directed by Diego Pablo Simeone.

Costa averages a goal every 891 minutes and Kalinic a goal every 243 minutes. Both records are visibly lower than Alvaro’s: a goal every 200 minutes.

Thus, with the ’22’ the red-and-white will see increased numbers of goals and assists, as well as the shots taken throughout the game, provided Morata plays in place of Kalinic or Costa. Atletico will also shoot more on goal, will have a greater number of passes of death and aerial balls. Morata will be key to improving all these records.

Performance prediction 2018/2019

In the following graph we can identify the main differences between Atletico’s performance with and without Morata.

Morata would do more goals in the current Real Madrid than in this Atletico

Few players can boast of having played in the two best teams in the Community of Madrid, not only for the level demanded, but also for the high degree of rivalry. In fact, when Morata was young he did not go directly from Atlético to Madrid, but preferred to spend a year of transition in Getafe to make that leap.

It is difficult to define exactly what Alvaro has brought to Real Madrid, but there is no doubt that in 2016 he found himself at his best. In that season, he recorded a devastating average of 0.97 goals per game. Precisely, these data coincided in a stage where he went out to the field of play to play the last minutes. Far from approaching these numbers, the exmadridista would record a goal every game and a half in the current Real Madrid de Solari. In the section of assists, Morata would also increase his records in the white set with a goal pass every five-six matches, approximately. In the graph below you can see Morata’s performance prediction, if he played this season in the white team

Ciro Immobile, the recommendation for Atlético when it finishes the cession of Morata

According to our tool of similar players, the forward of the Lazio, Ciro Immobile, is selected like possible suitable candidate substitute of Morata for the Atletico de Madrid since the Italian presents very similar registers to those that the madrileño will register in the red and white set. Our algorithm suggests to Atlético de Madrid that, when Álvaro’s loan expires, Immobile could be a considerable option, as long as he wants to cover the same needs as Morata. Our system takes into account that the Lazio player will have one more year, his adaptation to Spanish football and rapport with the players of Atlético de Madrid.

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