Post Match Analysis
Current performance Vs prediction performance
The Real Madrid-Barcelona match was resolved under the effectiveness differences. FC BarCELONA had the capacity to obtain goals with the minimum of possible opportunities.
Olocip prematch analysis based on AI predictions
Last Wednesday we analyzed ‘El Clásico‘ in Diario Marca thorugh our own predictive models of IA.
In the first place, we analyzed each player individually, based on the predictions of performance in such a way that we could analyze each team at team level, and undertand the effectiveness of both teams.
Once the match is over and the statistics have been analysed, we can ientify how the predictions made about the expected goal or expected attendance were aligned with what happened during the match.
During the match, Barcelona made only three shots between the three sticks, scoring 100% of the chances. Among them, the first goal scored by Luis Suarez stands out, since he managed it in a complicated situation, straining the ball through the only hole he had and with a very close defender.
On the other hand, according to what is established in the predictive models, Real Madrid converts fewer chances of goal than it should (0.85 xG), which shows that despite having clear chances for goal, they are not able to materialize them.
If we analyze the statistics of Real Madrid in yesterday’s match, we find a total of 12 total shots, of which four went to goal. Real Madrid players achieved a 33% efficiency when shooting between the three sticks.
In terms of expected assistance, FC Barcelona generates more favourable situations that tend to turn into goals (1.01). This does not mean that Real Madrid does not generate assists or dangerous actions, but that they are not converting them with the frequency predicted, as happened in the match.
As for the players, there are several main responsibles. For example, Sergio Reguilón, who came very close to scoring in a clear opportunity. Considering the xG (0.25) and the zero goals he has scored to date, we can identify how he is not offering his best level face to face when he finds himself in this situation.
When it comes to assists, the opposite is true. Although yesterday his crosses found no finisher, the player generated much danger by touch line, reflected in the analysis of assists: 2 assists, and 1.66 expected assists xA.
Regarding Vinícius Junior, who generated a lot of offensive opportunites, but of the five clear goalscoring chances he had did not convert any. The Brazilian is also below the expected goal: with two goals in League and an xG of 2.38.
As for Barcelona, Luis Suárez, as scorer, and Dembelé, as assistant, stood out. Both were able to overcome previous statistics up to the moment and improve their statistics. The Uruguayan presented 15 goals and an xG of 18.0, due to the little success of face to goal so far.
The French winger did not have opportunities to face the goal, where he could have been decisive as the predictions show (8 goals, xG 3.25); however, he did add two assists in line with his prediction of xA, where it offers a potential slightly higher than that currently recorded and that yesterday was reflected.